Opportunity Assessment
Tests whether the problem costs someone money today, before anyone designs a fix.
What Corbel brought · Head of Product
“Every lost deal says offline. The board has already been told Q1. Just confirm we should build it.”
What the prompt returned
Build a third of it. Jobs failing to close with no signal is Observed in the logs and delays billing. The rest of “offline” rests on what customers said.
The analysis · The board was promised all of offline; the evidence supports one workflow
An opportunity assessment grades the evidence before anyone designs a fix, and of the 10 items behind Corbel’s offline request only 3 were Observed behaviour: 5 were things customers said, and 2 were assumed.
- The logs show where the problem is. 19% of job completions fail for lack of signal at 170 commercial heating and air-conditioning (HVAC) accounts, whose technicians work in basements and plant rooms, against 2% everywhere else. That settles value risk, the first of the four product risks (value, usability, feasibility and viability): customers lose money today without a fix.
- The cost is billing, not frustration. A job that fails to close is re-entered from the van later, which delays the invoice by 4.2 days on average at accounts holding $12.4M of Corbel’s $31M revenue.
- Waiting has a price. 48 of 118 cancellation surveys named offline in the last year, from accounts paying $2.8M a year; two more quarters at that rate puts about $1.4M at risk.
Takeaway: build offline job completion only. The riskiest assumption, the belief that would make the initiative worthless if it were false, is that technicians need every feature offline, and no data supports it.